Economic concern will be the key that defines the Latino vote in the United States. He 65% of Hispanic voters in key states says he is “very concerned” about the impact of the war with Iran on prices, according to a survey by Somos Votantes and World Approach Team presented on April 30. The general fear is clear: that inflation will rise again and hit basic expenses such as gasoline, rent and food.
This context is also shaping political preferences for the November midterm elections. Democrats have a +20 point advantage in generic voting intention among Latinoswhile a complementary analysis by Individuals for Tax Fairness points out that the Job creation in sectors with a high Latino presence fell 35% in the first months of Trump’s new mandate compared to the same period of the Biden administration.
For millions of families, the impact is not abstract: The negative impact of finances on each purchase and each receipt will end up taking its toll on the government in the next elections.
The Latin pocket already resents the cost of the war with Iran
The biggest concern of those surveyed is not migration or some cultural issue: it is economic and has a specific cause. He 65% of Latino voters in the states surveyed point out as “very worrying” that Donald Trump’s war with Iran is pushing inflation up, while the 64% mentions that gasoline became more expensive as a direct consequence of the conflict, according to data from Somos Votantes and GSG Political.
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“Trump promised that he was going to lower prices from day one,” said Emmanuelle Leal Santillan, national director of Communications and Media at Somos Votantes, during the conference. “Voters have repented. The data rates Trump poorly on the economy and support for Trump and the Republicans will be heavily influenced by his ratings among Latinos,” he said.
Tariffs broke the alliance: Latino men moved away from the Republican side
One of the most revealing findings of the study is that the decline in support for Trump has not been gradual or homogeneous. Leal Santillan indicated that the latin men They are the segment that supported Trump in the greatest proportion in November 2024 and in the face of valid reality, they have now distanced themselves.
“The collapse of support is among Latino male voters: in the summer (2025), with the entry into force of the tariffs, men began to withdraw their support from Trump, due to the effect of these policies on their pockets,” said the spokesperson.
The generalized 10% tariff on imports, and the additional costs that have been passed on to the final consumer, is the breaking point for a segment that had voted for the Republicans, motivated by the values and social order of their platform, not by fiscal policy.
Jobs in Latino industries fell 35% during the Trump administration
The other side of this Latin disenchantment with the government has hard figures. An ATF analysis, with data from the Department of Labor, reveals that employment growth in industries with a high concentration of Latino workers (construction, services, manufacturing, cleaning, restoration), collapsed 35% during the first 14 months of Trump’s second term, compared to the same period of Joe Biden’s administration.
That is equivalent to about 300,000 fewer jobs than would have been generated at the rate of 2024. “President Trump’s economy for billionaires is failing ordinary working people, especially those who have suffered the most historically: young, black and Latino workers,” he said. David Kass, CEO of Individuals for Tax Fairness.
Why Latinos voted for Trump even though the policies affected them
The survey documents Latino disenchantment and the reasons that caused it. Drake Sterling, representative of the Community organization at the conference, offered an ideological reading that explains the electoral decisions of Latinos:
“Latinos did not vote for their own economic interests. Structural and cultural factors made many Latinos vote for Trump even though the policies affected their interests: identity, values, anti-elitism, inflation, crime, migration. They prioritized security and social order. It is a multifactorial phenomenon,” Sterling said.
This distance between value and vote is what Republicans capitalized on in the presidential election, but according to the survey, this preference is beginning to reverse.
Democrats already have +20 in the generic Latino vote
According to the poll, Democrats have a lead of +20 points in the generic vote in the states surveyed (55% versus 35%) and +12 points at the district level (53% vs. 41%).
However, Somos Votantes warned that Trump’s popularity has not bottomed out. “It is expected to continue falling towards November, and Latino voters say they are very motivated to vote,” said Leal Santillan.
That combination of low approval and high motivation is precisely what Democratic strategists are looking for as a driving force in states like Texas and Florida, where districts TX-15, FL-07 and FL-27 are in dispute.
What this means for the Hispanic reader before November
Beyond political analysis, the data from this survey has practical implications for the Hispanic community:
- Your economic concerns are already part of the electoral debate: Expensive gasoline, tariffs and the cost of Medicaid are at the center of the polls.
- The Latino vote matters more than ever: With close margins in key states, Hispanic turnout may define who controls Congress in November 2026.
- Get informed before voting: Latino community organizations have resources in Spanish to understand how policies like tariffs, Medicaid, and energy directly affect family budgets.
Frequently asked questions (FAQ) about the impact of the economy on the Latino vote for November
What is the Somos Votantes survey and what does it measure?
It is a survey conducted that measures the preferences of Latino voters registered in states and districts considered competitive for the November 2026 midterm elections.
Why do tariffs especially affect Latinos?
Because many Hispanic workers are concentrated in sectors such as construction, manufacturing, services and restaurants. They are the most exposed to the additional costs generated by tariffs
How does the war with Iran affect the Hispanic pocket?
The war skyrocketed oil and gasoline prices. 64% of Latinos surveyed in key states identify it as a direct consequence of the conflict.
How much did Latino support for Trump fall?
Democrats have a +15 point advantage in party affiliation in the states surveyed and +20 in the generic vote. The biggest change occurred among Latino men.
What happened to Latino jobs under Trump?
According to ATF, nearly 300,000 fewer jobs were created in industries with a high Latino presence during Trump’s first 14 months compared to the same period under Biden, a 35% drop.
What motivated many Latinos to vote for Trump in 2024 if the policies hurt them?
According to Community’s Drake Sterling, it was a multifactorial phenomenon: identity, conservative values, anti-elitism, concern about crime and migration.
Conclusion
The numbers presented this Thursday paint a clear picture for the Republican platform: the Latino vote, which Trump partially won in 2024, is unraveling under the weight of the rising cost of living, which has been affected by expensive gasoline, tariffs and cuts to programs like Medicaid.
The survey by Somos Votantes and ATF is a snapshot of discontent and also a warning that November 2026 could be very different from November 2024. The question is whether disenchantment with the government will translate into concrete votes at the polls.
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